Dynamic simulation and projection of ESV changes in arid regions caused by urban growth under climate change scenarios.

Spatial simulation and projection of ecosystem services value (ESV) changes caused by urban growth are important for sustainable development in arid regions. We developed a new model of cellular automata based grasshopper optimization algorithm (named GOA-CA) for simulating urban growth patterns and assessing the impacts of urban growth on ESV changes under climate change scenarios. The results show that GOA-CA yielded overall accuracy exceeding 98%, and FOM for 2010 and 2020 were 43.2% and 38.1%, respectively, indicating the effectiveness of the model. The prairie lost the highest economic ESVs (192 million USD) and the coniferous yielded the largest economic ESV increase (292 million USD) during 2000-2020. Using climate change scenarios as urban future land use demands, we projected three scenarios of the urban growth of Urumqi for 2050 and their impacts on ESV. Our model can be easily applied to simulating urban development, analyzing its impact on ESV and projecting future scenarios in global arid regions.

Characterization of VOC emissions and health risk assessment in the plastic manufacturing industry.

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) significantly contribute to ozone pollution formation, and many VOCs are known to be harmful to human health. Plastic has become an indispensable material in various industries and daily use scenarios, yet the VOC emissions and associated health risks in the plastic manufacturing industry have received limited attention. In this study, we conducted sampling in three typical plastic manufacturing factories to analyze the emission characteristics of VOCs, ozone formation potential (OFP), and health risks for workers. Isopropanol was detected at relatively high concentrations in all three factories, with concentrations in organized emissions reaching 322.3 µg/m3, 344.8 µg/m3, and 22.6 µg/m3, respectively. Alkanes are the most emitted category of VOCs in plastic factories. However, alkenes and oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) exhibit higher OFP. In organized emissions of different types of VOCs in the three factories, alkenes and OVOCs contributed 22.8%, 67%, and 37.8% to the OFP, respectively, highlighting the necessity of controlling them. The hazard index (HI) for all three factories was less than 1, indicating a low non-carcinogenic toxic risk; however, there is still a possibility of non-cancerous health risks in two of the factories, and a potential lifetime cancer risk in all of the three factories. For workers with job tenures exceeding 5 years, there may be potential health risks, hence wearing masks with protective capabilities is necessary. This study provides evidence for reducing VOC emissions and improving management measures to ensure the health protection of workers in the plastic manufacturing industry.

Prussian blue analogues improves the microenvironment after spinal cord injury by regulating Zn.

Mitochondrial injury, neuronal apoptosis and phenotypic transformation of macrophages are the main mechanisms of spinal cord injury. Based on the Prussian blue nanomase's strong ability to clear free radicals, the treatment of spinal cord injury with nano-zirconium (Pb-Zr) was carried out. The disease treatment strategy based on nanomaterials has excellent therapeutic effect, and Prussian blue analogs have good therapeutic properties, so the application prospects of Prussian blue analogs is broad. From the point of view of Prussian blue content, improving the presence of zirconium in the microenvironment significantly increased the activity of Prussian blue. Prussian Blue zirconium significantly improved lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and interferon (IFN-γ) induced neuronal cell (pc12 cells) and macrophage dysfunction by improving oxidative stress, inflammation, and apoptosis in the microenvironment. It can promote the recovery of motor function after spinal cord injury. In vivo experiments, it shows that Prussian blue zirconium can improve inflammation, apoptosis and oxidative stress of spinal cord tissue, promote regenerative therapy after spinal cord injury, and improve motor function. Moreover, it has been reported that high-priced Zr4+ cations can regulate the deposition and nucleation behavior of Zn2+ in high-performance zinc metal anodes. Therefore, we propose the hypothesis that Pb-Zr modulates Zn2+ be used to promote recovery from spinal cord injury. The results show that nanomaterial is beneficial in the treatment of spinal cord injury. This study provides a good prospect for the application of spinal cord injury treatment. It also provides an important feasibility for subsequent clinical conversions.

Abnormal energy metabolism, oxidative stress, and polyunsaturated fatty acid metabolism in depressed adolescents associated with childhood maltreatment: A targeted metabolite analysis.

The purpose of this study was to explore the metabolomic differences between Major depressive disorder (MDD) and healthy individuals among adolescents and the association between childhood maltreatment (CM) and differentially abundant metabolites. The exploratory study included 40 first-episode drug-naïve adolescents with MDD and 20 healthy volunteers. We used the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-13) to assess the severity of depression and the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) to assess the presence of childhood maltreatment. The plasma samples from all participants were collected for targeted metabolomics analysis using ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC‒MS/MS) methods. Spearman correlation was applied to analyse the correlations between clinical variables and metabolites. We found 11 increased metabolites and 37 decreased metabolites that differed between adolescents with MDD and healthy individuals. Pathway enrichment analysis of differentially abundant metabolites showed abnormalities in energy metabolism and oxidative stress in MDD. Importantly, we found that creatine, valine, isoleucine, glutamic acid and pyroglutamic acid were negatively correlated with the BDI-13, while isocitric acid, fatty acid and acylcarnitine were negatively associated with CTQ, and 4-hydroxyproline was positively related to CTQ in adolescents with MDD. These studies provide new ideas for the pathogenesis and potential treatment of adolescents with MDD.

Modified ZIF-8 Nanoparticles for Targeted Metabolic Treatment of Acute Spinal Cord Injury.

The activation of proinflammatory M1-type macrophages in the injured lesion accelerates the progression of a spinal cord injury (SCI). However, adverse side effects during systemic treatments targeting M1 macrophages have limited their applications. Nanoplatforms are novel carriers of traditional Chinese medicine because of their great efficiency to deliver and accumulation in the lesion. Herein, we synthesized a modified zeolitic imidazolate framework-8 (ZIF-8) nanoplatform for internalization and accumulation in the injured spinal cord and effective administration for SCI. In vitro and in vivo experiments suggested that Prussian blue and Schisandrin B modified ZIF-8 effectively accumulated in M1 macrophages, inhibited reactive oxygen species (ROS), and polarized the macrophage from proinflammatory M1 to anti-inflammatory M2 for rapid tissue infiltration by reprogramming the metabolic macrophages phenotype. This nanoplatform achieves a synergistic therapeutic effect of immunomodulation and neuroprotection, thereby shedding new light on the application of ZIF-8, and provides great potential for SCI.

Operando imaging in electrocatalysis: insights into microstructural materials design.

Electrocatalysis plays a pivotal role in renewable energy conversion and associated chemical production, enabling a variety of emerging sustainability technologies with societal impacts. Achieving marked improvement in electrocatalytic performance relies on a deep understanding of catalyst microstructures and catalytic mechanisms, with a particular emphasis on the detailed, spatiotemporally resolved characterizations of the underlying fundamental electrocatalytic processes. This fundamental need drives the development of operando imaging techniques, which improve the ability to detect dynamic structural changes in electrocatalysts and establish clear structure-performance relationships for morphologically complex, hierarchically structured catalytic materials. This review aims to highlight significant advancements in the application of operando imaging techniques to develop a deeper understanding of important heterogeneous electrocatalytic reactions critical for emerging sustainability technologies. We summarize the up-to-date key mechanistic insights regarding these reactions achieved through a range of operando imaging techniques, including electron microscopies, X-ray imaging techniques, scanning probe microscopies, and optical microscopies. We conclude by pointing out emerging directions and future prospects within the field of operando imaging in electrocatalysis.

Anti-HIV drugs lopinavir/ritonavir activate bitter taste receptors.

Lopinavir and ritonavir (LPV/r) are the primary anti-human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) drugs recommended by the World Health Organization for treating children aged 3 years and above who are infected with the HIV. These drugs are typically available in liquid formulations to aid in dosing for children who cannot swallow tablets. However, the strong bitter taste associated with these medications can be a significant obstacle to adherence, particularly in young children, and can jeopardize the effectiveness of the treatment. Studies have shown that poor palatability can affect the survival rate of HIV-infected children. Therefore, developing more child-friendly protease inhibitor formulations, particularly those with improved taste, is critical for children with HIV. The molecular mechanism by which lopinavir and ritonavir activate bitter taste receptors, TAS2Rs, is not yet clear. In this study, we utilized a calcium mobilization assay to characterize the activation of bitter taste receptors by lopinavir and ritonavir. We discovered that lopinavir activates TAS2R1 and TAS2R13, while ritonavir activates TAS2R1, TAS2R8, TAS2R13, and TAS2R14. The development of bitter taste blockers that target these receptors with a safe profile would be highly desirable in eliminating the unpleasant bitter taste of these anti-HIV drugs.

A novel metabolic reprogramming strategy for the treatment of targeting to heart injury-mediated macrophages.

M1 macrophages polarization has been reported as the direct risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) occurrence and worsen AMI prognosis, especially for hyperinflammation-associated AMI. However, clinic treatments remain challenges, including off-target and side-effects. The development of enzyme mimetics could provide effective treatments for a wide variety of diseases. Herein, nanomaterials were used to create artificial hybrid nanozymes. In this study, we synthesized in situ zeolitic imidazolate framework nanozyme (ZIF-8zyme) with anti-oxidative and anti-inflammatory ability to repair microenvironment via reprogramming M1 macrophages polarization. In vitro study reported that a metabolic reprogramming strategy that the improvement of glucose import and glycolysis with ZIF-8zyme via inhibiting ROS levels led to a metabolic crisis within the macrophages. ZIF-8zyme shifted the polarization of M1 macrophages toward higher production of M2 phenotype, decreased proinflammatory cytokines secretion, and promoted significant survival of cardiomyocytes under hyperinflammation condition. Moreover, ZIF-8zyme elicits more potent macrophages-polarizing effects under hyperinflammation condition. Therefore, metabolic reprogramming strategy based on ZIF-8zyme is a promising AMI therapy, especially for hyperinflammation-associated AMI.

The role of the probiotic Akkermansia muciniphila in brain functions: insights underpinning therapeutic potential.

The role of Akkermansia muciniphila, one of the most abundant microorganisms of the intestinal microbiota, has been studied extensively in metabolic diseases, such as obesity and diabetes. It is considered a next-generation probiotic microorganism. Although its mechanism of action has not been fully elucidated, accumulating evidence indicates the important role of A. muciniphila in brain functions via the gut-brain axis and its potential as a therapeutic target in various neuropsychiatric disorders. However, only a limited number of studies, particularly clinical studies, have directly assessed the therapeutic effects of A. muciniphila interventions in these disorders. This is the first review to discuss the comprehensive mechanism of A. muciniphila in the gut-brain axis via the protection of the intestinal mucosal barrier and modulation of the immune system and metabolites, such as short-chain fatty acids, amino acids, and amino acid derivatives. Additionally, the role of A. muciniphila and its therapeutic potential in various neuropsychiatric disorders, including Alzheimer's disease and cognitive deficit, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, Parkinson's disease, and multiple sclerosis, have been discussed. The review suggests the potential role of A. muciniphila in healthy brain functions.

General Equation to Estimate the Physicochemical Properties of Aliphatic Amines.

Changes in various physicochemical properties (P(n)) of aliphatic amines (including primary, secondary, and tertiary amines) can be roughly divided into nonlinear (P(n)) and linear (PLC(n)) changes. In our previous paper, nonlinear and linear change properties of noncyclic alkanes all were correlated with four parameters, n, SCNE, ΔAOEI, and ΔAIMPI, indicating number of carbon atoms, sum of carbon number effects, average odd-even index difference, and average inner molecular polarizability index difference, respectively. To date, there has been no general equation to express changes in the properties of substituted alkanes. This work, based on the molecular structure characteristics of aliphatic amine molecules, proposes a general equation to express nonlinear changes in their physicochemical properties, named as the "NPAA equation" (eq 12), ln(P(n)) = a + b(n) + c(SCNE) + d(ΔAOEI) + e(PEI) + f(APEI) + g(GN), and proposes a general equation to express linear changes in the physicochemical properties of them, named as the "LPAA equation" (eq 13), PLC(n) = a + b(n) + c(SCNE) + d(ΔAOEI) + e(PEI) + f(APEI) + g(GN). In NPAA and LPAA equations, a, b, c, d, e, f, and g are coefficients, and PEI, APEI, and GN represent the polarizability effect index, average polarizability effect index, and N atomic influence factor, respectively. The results show that nonlinear and linear change properties of aliphatic amines all can be correlated with six parameters, n, SCNE, ΔAOEI, PEI, APEI, and GN. NPAA and LPAA equations have the advantages of uniform expression, high estimation accuracy, and usage of fewer parameters. Further, by employing the above six parameters, a quantitative correlation equation can be established between any two properties of aliphatic amines. Using the obtained equations as model equations, the property data of aliphatic amines were predicted, involving 107 normal boiling points, 10 refractive indexes, 11 liquid densities, 54 critical temperatures, 54 critical pressures, 62 liquid thermal conductivities, 59 surface tensions, 56 heat capacities, 55 critical volumes, 54 gas enthalpies of formation, and 57 gas Gibbs energies of formation, a total of 579 values, which have not been experimentally determined yet. This work not only provides a simple and convenient method for estimating or predicting the properties of aliphatic amines but can also provide new perspectives for quantitative structure-property relationships of substituted alkanes.

Intervention methods for improving reduced heart rate variability in patients with major depressive disorder: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Several studies have demonstrated that patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) commonly show reductions in heart rate variability (HRV) parameters. Thus, interventions for the improvement of low HRV may be advantageous in treating MDD. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to explore the improvement effects of current clinical treatments on low HRV in patients with MDD. METHODS: Based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, the PubMed, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and CNKI databases were searched for relevant literature. Interventional studies of patients with confirmed MDD, which included baseline and post-intervention data and at least one HRV parameter as an outcome indicator, were included for meta-analysis. RESULTS: Twenty-one studies were included in the review. Several studies affirmed the role of psychotherapy in improving low HRV in patients with MDD showing a significant increase in high-frequency and low-frequency power after psychotherapy in the meta-analysis. However, both pharmacotherapy studies and physiotherapy studies included in the meta-analysis showed significant heterogeneity. LIMITATIONS: The main limitation of this study was the relatively small samples for the meta-analysis, and more high-quality randomized controlled trials in this field are wanted. CONCLUSIONS: Psychotherapy was effective for improving low HRV in patients with MDD. However, the effect of pharmacotherapy or physical therapy on low HRV in MDD remains unclear. Regarding research methods, it is necessary to formulate and standardize operational guidelines for future HRV measurements.

Triamcinolone acetonide-loaded nanoparticles encapsulated by CD90+ MCSs-derived microvesicles drive anti-inflammatory properties and promote cartilage regeneration after osteoarthritis.

BACKGROUND: Osteoarthritis (OA) is a highly prevalent human degenerative joint disorder that has long plagued patients. Glucocorticoid injection into the intra-articular (IA) cavity provides potential short-term analgesia and anti-inflammatory effects, but long-term IA injections cause loss of cartilage. Synovial mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) reportedly promote cartilage proliferation and increase cartilage content. METHODS: CD90+ MCS-derived micro-vesicle (CD90@MV)-coated nanoparticle (CD90@NP) was developed. CD90+ MCSs were extracted from human synovial tissue. Cytochalasin B (CB) relaxed the interaction between the cytoskeleton and the cell membranes of the CD90+ MCSs, stimulating CD90@MV secretion. Poly (lactic-co-glycolic acid) (PLGA) nanoparticle was coated with CD90@MV, and a model glucocorticoid, triamcinolone acetonide (TA), was encapsulated in the CD90@NP (T-CD90@NP). The chondroprotective effect of T-CD90@NP was validated in rabbit and rat OA models. RESULTS: The CD90@MV membrane proteins were similar to that of CD90+ MCSs, indicating that CD90@MV bio-activity was similar to the cartilage proliferation-inducing CD90+ MCSs. CD90@NP binding to injured primary cartilage cells was significantly stronger than to erythrocyte membrane-coated nanoparticles (RNP). In the rabbit OA model, the long-term IA treatment with T-CD90@NP showed significantly enhanced repair of damaged cartilage compared to TA and CD90+ MCS treatments. In the rat OA model, the short-term IA treatment with T-CD90@NP showed effective anti-inflammatory ability similar to that of TA treatment. Moreover, the long-term IA treatment with T-CD90@NP induced cartilage to restart the cell cycle and reduced cartilage apoptosis. T-CD90@NP promoted the regeneration of chondrocytes, reduced apoptosis via the FOXO pathway, and influenced type 2 macrophage polarization to regulate inflammation through IL-10. CONCLUSION: This study confirmed that T-CD90@NP promoted chondrocyte proliferation and anti-inflammation, improving the effects of a clinical glucocorticoid treatment plan.

Raman spectroscopy studies of black phosphorus.

Black phosphorus has important applications in many fields such as optics, optoelectronics and thermals. Many of its excellent properties are related to its special anisotropy. In this work, we adopted Raman spectroscopy, which can obtain fast response optical signals without destroying the structure of the sample, to identify its crystal orientation and explore its thermal and SERS properties. We successfully distinguished the armchair and zigzag directions of black phosphorus by angle-resolved polarized Raman spectroscopy of Ag mode in a less studied orthogonal polarization configuration. Then we used temperature dependent Raman spectroscopy to study its thermal properties. It is found that the first order temperature coefficients of its three Raman vibration modes Ag1, B2g, and Ag2 are -0.0133 cm-1 K-1, -0.0232 cm-1 K-1 and -0.0229 cm-1 K-1, respectively for the 3.2 nm sample. Furthermore, we studied the surface enhancement effect of black phosphorus with different thicknesses as SERS substrates. We found that few-layer black phosphorus has better enhancement effects and its limit of detection for MB and CV are both 10-6M. The analytical enhancement factor of black phosphorus substrates on CV can achieve 1.2 × 103 by calculation. These methods can be extended to other similar two-dimensional materials.

A simple method to distinguish residual elotuzumab from monoclonal paraprotein in immunofixation assays for multiple myeloma patients.

Negative immunofixation electrophoresis (IFE) of serum and/or urine is a diagnostic marker for determining a complete response (CR) after immunotherapy for multiple myeloma (MM). However, residual therapeutic antibodies such as elotuzumab (IgG-κ), can compromise IFE evaluation when the affected immunoglobulins belong to the same IgG-κ subclass. We thus sought to develop a simple and rapid method to treat patient serum before IFE to distinguish the residual elotuzumab. Serum samples from patients receiving elotuzumab were treated with a predetermined amount of soluble signaling lymphocyte activation molecule F7 (SLAMF7) protein and then subjected to conventional IFE testing. We tested our method in samples from 12 patients. The IgG-κ band in IFE disappeared or shifted after elotuzumab treatment in four patients with no bone marrow minimal residual disease and normalized free light chain, whereas seven patients with any sign of residual MM showed a remaining IgG-κ band after treatment. One-hour incubation of samples with 6-9 molar excess soluble SLAMF7 before IFE was sufficient to distinguish residual elotuzumab in 11 of 12 samples. This simple method does not require special reagents, can be performed in most clinical laboratories, and enables differentiation between patients with a CR and those requiring further treatment.

Bioengineered Zinc Oxide Nanoparticle-Loaded Hydrogel for Combinative Treatment of Spinal Cord Transection.

Spinal cord injury (SCI) is one of the most destructive diseases. The neuroinflammation microenvironment needs comprehensive mitigation of damages. Thus, regulation of local, microenvironment drugs could be a potential effective treatment. However, clinical studies on SCI with common treatment have reported it to cause systemic toxicity and side effects. Zinc oxide nanoparticles (ZnONPs) have been widely reported to have satisfying anti-inflammation function. Furthermore, green synthesis procedures can improve the capability and possible utilization of ZnONPs. However, the efficient administration and underlying mechanism of ZnONPs in SCI treatment remain unclear. Herein, an innovative approach was built by utilizing ZnONPs loaded in a skeletal muscle-derived adhesive hydrogel (ZnONPs-Gel). Different from the systemic application of ZnONPs, the local administration of ZnONPs-Gel offered the ZnONPs-loaded extracellular matrix with beneficial biocompatibility to the injured spinal cord, thereby promoting effective function recovery. Mechanistically, the ZnONPs-Gel treatment not only markedly reduced ROS production but also decreased apoptosis in the injured spinal cord. Therefore, the strategy based on local administration of the ZnONPs-Gel in the early stage of SCI may be an effective therapeutic treatment.

Metformin alleviates hydrogen peroxide-induced inflammation and oxidative stress via inhibiting P2X7R signaling in spinal cord tissue cells neurons.

Metformin, the first medication that is often prescribed for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus, was recently found to be neuroprotective. To study the mechanism underlying the neuroprotective effect of metformin, we pretreated primary spinal cord neurons with 50 µM or 100 µM metformin for 2 h prior to treatment with hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) for up to 48 h. Our results showed that H2O2 increased the expression of purinergic receptor P2X7 (P2X7R) in spinal cord neurons, which promoted the downstream pro-inflammatory cytokines release and oxidative stress. We found that metformin could reverse these pro-inflammatory and pro-oxidative effects of H2O2. Besides, P2X7R knockdown by siRNA suppressed H2O2-induced pro-inflammatory cytokine release and oxidative stress response. In conclusion, our results show that metformin can alleviate H2O2-induced inflammation and oxidative stress via modulating the P2X7R signaling pathway.

Metformin alleviates high glucose-induced ER stress and inflammation by inhibiting the interaction between caveolin1 and AMPKα in rat astrocytes.

Hyperglycemia-induced endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress and inflammatory response afflict neuropathological diseases (such as epilepsy and Alzheimer's disease). Astrocytes are the critical cells that mediate brain inflammation in this process. Metformin is a kind of hypoglycemic drugs widely used in clinical practice, which has anti-inflammatory and antioxidant effects. However, the biological mechanism of metformin in regulating inflammation and ER stress induced by hyperglycemia remains unclear. Therefore, in this study, rat primary astrocytes were preincubated with metformin and AMPK agonist AICAR for 1 h prior to administration of high glucose (33 mM glucose). Our findings indicated that metformin treatment inhibited the elevated ER stress and inflammation in high glucose-treated astrocytes. Moreover, metformin inhibited the formation of caveolin1/AMPKα complex. Additionally, the effects of AICAR on astrocytes were similar to metformin. In conclusion, metformin reduced high glucose-induced ER stress and inflammation by inhibiting the interaction between caveolin1 and AMPKα, suggesting that the caveolin1/AMPKα complex may be a potential therapeutic target for metformin.

Spatiotemporal spread pattern of the COVID-19 cases in China.

The COVID-19 pandemic is currently spreading widely around the world, causing huge threats to public safety and global society. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal pattern of the COVID-19 pandemic in China, reveals China's epicenters of the pandemic through spatial clustering, and delineates the substantial effect of distance to Wuhan on the pandemic spread. The results show that the daily new COVID-19 cases mostly occurred in and around Wuhan before March 6, and then moved to the Grand Bay Area (Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macau). The total COVID-19 cases in China were mainly distributed in the east of the Huhuanyong Line, where the epicenters accounted for more than 60% of the country's total in/on 24 January and 7 February, half in/on 31 January, and more than 70% from 14 February. The total cases finally stabilized at approximately 84,000, and the inflection point for Wuhan was on 14 February, one week later than those of Hubei (outside Wuhan) and China (outside Hubei). The generalized additive model-based analysis shows that population density and distance to provincial cities were significantly associated with the total number of the cases, while distances to prefecture cities and intercity traffic stations, and population inflow from Wuhan after 24 January, had no strong relationships with the total number of cases. The results and findings should provide valuable insights for understanding the changes in the COVID-19 transmission as well as implications for controlling the global COVID-19 pandemic spread.

Spatially-explicit modeling and intensity analysis of China's land use change 2000-2050.

Land use change affected by wide ranges of human activities is a key driver of global climate change. In the last three decades, China has experienced unprecedented land use change accompanied by increasing environmental problems. There is a pressing need to project and analyze long-term land use scenarios that are critical for land use planning and policymaking. Using GlobeLand30 data, we examined China's land use change from 2000 to 2010, and developed a novel LandCA model for scenario projections from 2020 to 2050. The observed and projected land use change (2000-2050) was analyzed in terms of the interval, category, and transition levels. Our findings show that land Exchange intensity is more than 3 times greater than land Quantity intensity from 2000 to 2050, and the overall rate of land use change will decelerate from 2010 to 2050. During 2000-2010, the loss of built-up land to other categories was 12.7% while the gain was 32.5%, with a growth rate 3.4 times larger than that during 2010-2050. The total amount of cultivated land continuously decreases but will not violate the Chinese "Cultivated Land Red-Line Restriction" by 2050. We speculate that the government's goal of 26% forest cover by 2050 may not be achieved, as a result of strict land use policies preventing the transformation from cultivated land to forests. This study contributes to new evaluations of long-term land use change in China for the government to adjust policies and regulations for sustainable development.

Modeling ESV losses caused by urban expansion using cellular automata and geographically weighted regression.

Driven by increasing urban demand, spatially-varying urban expansion has led to significant ecosystem degradation in China and elsewhere. Spatial nonstationarity affects the relationship between urban expansion and ecosystem service value (ESV) loss, but its significance has been under-emphasized. To study the spatially-heterogeneous ESV loss, we integrated cellular automata (CA) with geographically weighted regression (GWR) in a model that considers the relationships between urban expansion and its driving factors. We used ten GWR bandwidths to construct the CAGWR models for reproducing rapid urban expansion at Chongqing from 2005 to 2010. We then used the CAGWR model with the best bandwidth to predict future urban scenarios out to 2030. Our modeling shows that CAGWR is strongly sensitive to bandwidth, and that the overall accuracy and Figure-of-Merit are maximized with a ~2 km2 bandwidth (about 150 samples). We examined ESV losses in eleven ecosystem classes and found that climate regulation and water flow regulation are the dominant drivers of ESV loss. From 2010 to 2030, Chongqing's urban area will increase by about 87%, resulting in substantial encroachment on agricultural land, dryland and shrubs, causing significant ESV losses of about 38%. Our results constitute an early warning of ecosystem degradation caused by massive urban development. This study improves our understanding of spatially-varying urban expansion and related ESV losses in rapidly developing areas and should help improve urban planning regulation and regional policy for sustainable development to maintain environmentally-friendly cities.